India’s cotton production estimate has further decreased by 9 lakh bales of 170 kg in the latest monthly projection report by the Cotton Association of India (CAI). In its January estimate, the trade body projected the output for 2022-23 at 321.50 lakh bales, with domestic cotton consumption and exports stable at 300 lakh bales and 30 lakh bales, respectively.
Cotton production is likely to reduce by 7.77 lakh bales to 42.50 lakh bales in the north zone, with Punjab and Haryana reporting drastic reductions in production. Rajasthan may see slightly higher production. In the central zone, production is likely to increase by 21.70 lakh bales to 193 lakh bales. The production may reduce by 5.50 lakh bales to 79.50 lakh bales in the south zone, as per the CAI report.
CAI has reduced the cotton crop estimates in Maharashtra by 2.50 lakh bales, Madhya Pradesh by 1 lakh bales, Telangana by 3 lakh bales, Andhra Pradesh by 1.50 lakh bales and Karnataka by 1 lakh bales.
The total cotton supply from October 2022 to January 2023 was 153.39 lakh bales, including new arrivals of 115.70 lakh bales, imports of 5.80 lakh bales and the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales. The CAI has estimated cotton consumption of 92.50 lakh bales in October-January. Only 4 lakh bales of cotton could be exported in the same period. Accordingly, the stock at the end of January 2023 was estimated at 56.89 lakh bales, including stocks of 40 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining stock with ginners, MNCs, traders, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and Maharashtra Federation.
The cotton supply estimated by the CAI until September 30, 2023, is 365.39 lakh bales, consisting of the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales, current production of 321.50 lakh bales, and estimated imports of 12 lakh bales. Last year, the import was 14 lakh bales.
The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 300 lakh bales, which is the same level as estimated earlier. The exports for the season have been estimated at 30 lakh bales, at the same level as estimated previously. The exports were 43 lakh bales in the last season 2021-22. The carry-over stock, which was earlier estimated at 44.39 lakh bales, has reduced to 35.39 lakh bales.
